Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Ray Miller Predictions

After running Ray Miller last year I knew right away that this race is going to be special for years to come.  With it's ocean views and vibrant green foliage this time of year, it's inspiring to run on.  Warm weather down here even in February, draws in other runners from other areas that experience real winters like Oregon and Colorado.  I am not surprised at all that these races sold out, Keira Henninger puts on nothing but quality races and Ray Miller is no exception.

Women's 50k

Jenn Benna
Kate Martini-Freeman (her and Jenn are gonna be neck'n'neck, it's a toss up who'll win)
Meghan Arbogast
Bree Lambert
Lisa Fink

Jenn Benna's 4:53 from last year (pictured left) will be beaten this year, by her or Kate.

Women's 50M

Amy Sproston (left)
Clare Abram
Katie Desplinter

Will Amy's 8:10 last year be broken?  I dunno.

Men's 50k

Chad Ricklefs (left)
Dominic Grossman
Mike McMonagle
Chris Price
Jeff Kozak (sounds like he's stepping down from the 50M distance)

Jonathon Toker's 4:07 CR, as fast as he is, is going to be obliterated.  I'm predicting winning time will be 3:50, but who cares?  There's a 50 miler going on here:

Men's 50M

Dylan Bowman (see a pattern here?)
Tim Olson (word on the street is that he's racing 50M)
Hal Koerner
Andy Jones-Wilkins
Tommy Nielsen
Marc Laveson
Toshi Hosaka
Thomas Reiss
Chris Rennaker
Brian Fuerst
Jimmy Freeman

Can Jorge Maravilla's time of 6:45 last year be beat?  I think Dylan or Timmy might be able to on a good day.  And with each other to feed off of, it'll probably happen, but no faster than 6:35.

I made up this list a little hastily, so please chime in on who I missed and/or misplaced.

Looking forward to a fun day of running in the mountains with tons of friends, which is a huge reason for me doing a bunch of these races in the first place.  And last but not least, good luck to my wife Elissa running her first 50 miler!


  1. TWO names in the 50-miler that jump out at me:
    Tom Nielsen (ran 8:19 last year on a bad day for him), home course, he's likely in better shape this year. I'd put him in front of AJW (especially on this course).

    Toshi Hosaka was RIGHT BEHIND Marc Laveson at American River last year (a fast course), and Toshi is one helluva mountain runner. The more hills, the better Toshi is.

    If Tom & Toshi have good days respectively, I believe they'll both be in the TOP 5 with times in the 7:35 range (or maybe even a little faster).

    Chris Rennaker is my dark horse (for TOP 5), he's been getting faster and smarter every year, and Jeff Kozak has a ton of experience and the altitude/attitude edge.

  2. Have a great race Chris! Kick ass out there!

    1. Thanks Josh! We still need to meet up one of these days... hopefully Baldy soon, unless you're tired of that mountain (I'm not).

  3. Your predictions are spot on. For the 50M race, I hope the chatter on Timmy's switch is true. It would be awesome to see him spice things up in the front. Likely it will be Dylan, Timmy, Hal, Draw a Line, Everyone Else. I checked out your race report from last year, great write up. I'm really excited to be running down in your neck of the woods for the first time. This course looks incredible, can't wait!

    JDF, I was running with Toshi on Saturday and told him that if he crosses another finish line holding your hand that he would be off the team! Your absolutely right though, Toshi is a monster in the mountains and he is going to crush this "not so flat" course. Looking forward to meeting you this weekend.

  4. Prizzle~

    Love you. Kate Freemna has been added to the 50k. She's scary fast. Should be a good one. Heard you guys came to see my brother, and didn't bother to come and see me and Jesse. Jesse cried. Guess we just need to hurry up and have a bay so you guys will come see us more often... ha! ;o)

    1. Ooooooh, KMF and Jenn Benna showdown! Sorry we missed you on our little trip to OC. Can't wait to see you and Jesse Saturday. You guys are having a baby? Awesome!

  5. I have no business on this list!!! But thanks for the call out, I'll do my best to live up to it! See you out there!

    1. I've seen you run recently Brian! Top 5 is definitely attainable.