Wednesday, June 10, 2015


So when I did my predictions for Black Canyon 100k, I got a little flack for them being boring, and not funny like some of my predictions in the past.  Hopefully, these are a bit better.


1) Kilian Jornet - He has the course record in the clockwise direction.  He'll probably get it in the counterclockwise direction this year.

Hi Kilian, yeah I know, running with a phone is great!

2) Iker Karrera - 2nd at UTMB twice, won Lavaredo.  I don't like putting two Euro's above all the 'Merican's, but they deserve it.

3) Karl Meltzer - He has won HR before (five times) as well as a couple other 100's.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him on the podium.

4) Troy Howard - 2nd at Wasatch last year, 2nd at HR in 2013 and 2009.

Adam running a 2:35 marathon, NBD.
5) Adam Campbell - Placed 3rd here last year after getting struck by lightening.  Has won Squamish 50k three times, Chuckanut 50k, 3rd at North Face SF 4 years ago.  Talented guy.

6) Mike Foote - Recently won Yakima Skyline Rim 50k, 2nd at Lavaredo last year, won the Ultra Marathon De Los Andes 80k, won Bighorn, and he's from Montana.

7) Jared Cambell - Has won Hardrock, Plain 100, completed Nolan's 14 and Barkley.

8) Scott Jaime - 5th at HR last year, 3rd in 2013.  I caught glimpses of him for hours that year but finished 13 minutes behind him.  I'm gunning for you this year Scott!  He's got this race dialed and is always in the mix.  He also set the Colorado Trail FKT a couple years ago.

9) Tsuyoshi Kaburaki - 6th at HR last year, won Bighorn the year before, as high as 2nd at WS in the past.  Can wall sit with the best of them.

10 Jamil Coury -  Somehow I didn't see that this RD extraordinaire was in this year.  He has many tough races under his belt including wins at Mogollon Monster 100, Zane Grey and Man Against Horse, multiple HR finishes and has nearly finished Barkley.  If he has a good day he could find himself on the podium.  Hopefully he won't throw up all over Handie's this year.

Looking good Matt
11) Matt Hart - He and Jared Campbell completed Nolan's 14 together, so he's uber tough and can persevere up and down big mountains over a long period of time.  He's also won Jemez, TRT 100, Bighorn 100 and was 2nd at HURT back in the day.  Not too shabby.

12) Brendan Trimboli - Finished 2nd at San Juan Solstice last year, 2nd at Miwok, and has run a bunch of local shorter races in the San Juan's.  Look's like he digs the skimo action as well.

13) Brandon Stapanowich - 2nd at Zane Grey this year, 5th at HURT.

14) Nick Coury -Recently won PCT 50, has finished 5th and 6th at HR.

Chris, pre-beer mile with helmet strapped tight.
15) Chris Askew - 100 miles is his distance.  He's got good results at Plain 100, Cascade 100, Bear, Massanutten and Kettle Moraine.  Look for him to clean up later in the race.

"Who's gonna coach ME!?"
16) Jason Koop - 3rd at Bear, 2nd at Zion.  When he shows up he shows up.  You know he's going to show up in Silverton.

Adam displaying his unorthodox stride at HR in 2013
17) Adam Hewey - Has placed 2nd at Cascade Crest and 2nd at San Diego 100.  Finished 10th here in 2013 after limping in the last 10 or so miles.

18) John Anderson - Being from Truckee is a good thing.  So are John's performances at TRT 50M (1st) & RRR (9th).

19) Denis Mikhavlov - Has won Virgil Crest 100, and placed 2nd at Massanutten.

Sad to see Tony Krupicka's name disappear from the list as deals with injury.  As with all my predictions it is likely that one or two of the guys above wont make it to the start line for some reason.  At least a couple will drop, and I'm forgetting a couple guys that deserve to be listed but aren't yet.  I hope to finish in the top 5 so that I can snag an extra lottery ticket for next year.

Women's predictions to be posted soon.


  1. I wouldn't count out Kelly Lance from this list. Especially as he has a finish under his belt.

  2. Yes on the first two but Campbell 3rd and Foote 4th

  3. Can't wait to see your predictions for the women!


  4. billy simpson will be in top 17

  5. Denis Mikhaylov.

  6. Be interesting to see how Kilian does with NO races except a last minute jump in at Zegama. Not sure what he did while in Nepal... May not be as sharp last year...

    Then again, it is Kilian

    1. He is doing Mount Marathon shortly before HR. Not sure if that is good planning though. Low altitude plus high chance of injury. We'll see. It is Kilian....