Sean O'Brien 50 Mile Predictions

Swami says... we will run through the mountains, and we might see snakes.

MEN

PREDICTED WINNING TIME: 6:18

1) Dylan Bowman - He has been very successful down here in Socal, winning Leona Divide in 6:00 a couple years ago and winning Ray Miller last year.  I know he's a competitive guy and will be eager to best Vargo after finishing just behind him at North Face 50 last December.  I see him and Vargo gutting it out together at the end.  Initially I predicted him coming in 2nd, but that really hasn't been sitting well with me.  Vargo was sick for a little while, Dylan has been training very well, so he's got the #1 spot now.

2) Chris Vargo - While this race has a good amount of climbing, 10-11k per my Garmin, it's still relatively fast/not-super technical... which will play to Vargo's strength, i.e., running fast.

3)Mike Wolfe - Finished 6th at NF, only one minute behind D-Bo.  He or one of the two guys above will get the W.

4) Jason Wolfe - Ran a 6:08 at Leona a couple years ago, ran a 3:46 at the Bootlegger, and has a bunch of other very impressive results.  I'd be surprised if he didn't earn a spot at WS via this race.

5) Timmy Olson - While he implies in his recent blog post that he won't be treating this race as an A race so to speak, he's still an amazing athlete and has been getting in some solid training in the San Gabriel Mountains.  He'll get caught up in the excitement of a great race with many guys pushing each other and he'll finish well as always.

6) Joshua Arthur - Placed 4th at Run Rabbit Run 100 in a stacked field, has some good San Juan Solstice results.

7) Rod Bien - Following Rod on Strava has been a bit intimidating.  Not only is he holding down a blazing pace in every run, but he's also doing tons of cross training/ab ripper stuff.  Not me, I know better.  Why's that you ask?  Well, being a local, I'm full aware of the local cougar population, and I'm not talking about this guy:

The Malibu cougar population is growing exponentially, out of control even.  When I run by with my uncut belly sticking out, they wont bat their mascara laden eyelashes.  But when Rob zips by with his chiseled 6-pack they'll pounce.

She spotted him at the aid station and left her perch at Zuma beach, watch out.

Uh oh, looks like they're joining forces.

8) Michael Aish - 3rd at Leadville and 3rd at Golden Gate Dirty 30, dang.

9) Josh Brimhall - Has tons of racing experience, and tons of great results.

10) Jesse Haynes - Top 10 at states last year, runs very smart, won't get carried away with all the guys destroying each other early on, and he's part wolf.  He might jump down to the 50k distance though, we'll see.

11) Dom Grossman - Dom has improved immensely in the last 6 months and knows the course well, expect a solid finish from him.

12) Jorge Pacheco - Threw down a 3:32 50k last December, so he's got his speed, which will come in handy on this course.

13) Gerad Dean - Did well at NF50, won Pine to Palm, 4th at Waldo.

14) Chris Wehan - Has a long list of impressive results, including wins at his last 3 races.

15) Neil Feerick - Solid time (course record) at the new Noble Canyon 50k, good race at Cuyamaca 100k.

16) William Tarantino - Won the Malibu Canyon 50k, which includes the first big climb of the course, and he has strong finishes at NF 50 and White River 50M.

17) Kyle Robinson - Fast at shorter distances, how will he hang in 50M?

18) Michael Ryan - He'll be uber solid the first 30 miles, then start puking his brains out.  He'll tough out a legit first 50 miler.

Erik Schulte - is pulling out due to an injury.
James Walsh not on the entrant list anymore.
Ricardo Ramirez is apparently injured.

Hey, what about me?  I dunno, what do you think?

Like any race, a couple guys might not show, a couple extra guys might jump in since it's a Montrail Cup Race, and a couple guys will probably drop after we all beat each other up for hours on end.


WOMEN

PREDICTED WINNING TIME:  7:40

1) Cassie Scallon - Lake Sonoma 50M course record holder.

2) Angela Shartel - AC 100 course record holder.

3) Meghan Arbogast - Just won Bandera 100k, she and Angela came in together at Ray Miller 50M a couple years ago.  It'll be a close one between those two.

4) Sally McRae - Recently did well at NF 50M, won Cuyamaca 100k, placed high at Lake Sonoma, and I've got a feeling she really wants to go the big dance.

5) Stephanie Weigel - Has won her last 4 races.  Placed 2nd at Ray Miller 50M last year.  She'll be right with the lead pack.

6) Tera Dube - She's run tons of races, and all of them very well.

7) Michelle Barton - Everyone knows how talented she is.  If she shows up ready to race and give this race her all, she could win.

8) Denisse Bourassa - Long list of big races with very respectable finishing times.


I'm sure that I forgot some obvious contenders on both sides, let me know what ya think.

If we bribe Bryon Powell enough (think good beer and maybe a place to stay?), he might come cover the race, let's all chip in and persuade him.

Looking forward to seeing you all out there, running around on the trails and basking in the golden California sun with a bunch of friends.

Happy Tapering

California International Marathon - Race Report

It was cold... for a road marathon in California.  I love cold weather when I'm running around mountains in the snow, but it's not as fun when you're running on 26 miles of flat road.  I'll take it over the heat though any day.  I've never finished a race before and wished it was a little bit warmer, but I did after this year's CIM.  It was in the mid 20's at the start and low to mid 30's at the finish.  I wore a buff over my hat to keep my ears warm, gloves and arm sleeves.  Why was it too cold for running?  My muscles and joints never really warmed up to the point of feeling loose like they normally do.

Every couple of miles or so I tried to grab a paper cup filled with fluid from a volunteer, then tried not to spill all of it while running 6 minute miles with numb hands and finally get a little bit down the hatch.  I couldn't help but laugh at how difficult this was, and how funny it had to appear.  Good thing the cool temperature kept me from needing much fluid.  I can't wait for my next race, where I can drink easily from a handheld water bottle.  Those road runners have it tough.  Not as tough as swimmers though:

Why I don't swim.

It was weird stepping out of my comfortable cocoon of trail racing where I recognize a lot of the field, to jumping into a sea of 6,500 strangers to run through cities on asphalt.  Luckily, this was a well organized race with quite a few aid stations that were flush with porta potties.  Unfortunately, I had to stop and use said facilities twice during the race.

Before I started my road marathon training my original goal was to run 2:29.  I strained and or ripped my calf at my first track workout, then I got sick for a couple weeks.  So my first month of training kind of went down the drain.  That, combined with the fact that running fast was a little harder than I remembered led me to scaling back my goal finish time to 2:39.  As the race drew closer I thought I'd finish in the 2:36-2:39 range.  I didn't.

Fail.

Looking back at my splits, I was right on track to finish 2:36 or 2:37 until mile 24, that's where the wheels fell off.  Negative thoughts crept in shortly after I started to crumble.  I kept thinking that I was pushing it hard, running okay, but I'd look down at my watch and see a pace in the 6:30's.  I did some quick math in my head and realized that I had to speed up and hold that to the finish to get there under 2:40.  I pushed it harder, my legs were already feeling heavy and I started to get a feeling in them that they were about to buckle and I'd have to cross the finish line like this:

The race wasn't a total loss by any means.  While I didn't finish in the time I wanted to, CIM was a great experience.

THINGS THAT WENT WELL:

I hung out with my wife and awesome in-laws for a couple days.  My dad, aunt Karen, brother Danny and his girlfriend Vanessa, all came to the race to cheer me on.  My good friends Megan and Mike hung out the night before and Mike ran sub three hours for the first time.  Way to go Mike!  Can you please send my your HRM data for the run? Ha!

Lunch at the Rio City Cafe

My new shoes, the Hoka Conquests were amazing.  Hoka has definitely stepped it up in the road running department with these shoes.  They are not as soft as Bondi's, but still absorb a lot of impact.  They're a lot more responsive and feel very fast on the road.

Can't wait to try these puppies out on the trails.

Nate and Gina were selling Hoka's like hotcakes at the expo.

THINGS THAT DIDN'T GO AS PLANNED AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT:

It's easy to throw out a bunch of lame excuses but I just flat out didn't meet my goal, and no one or anything else is to blame but me.  I usually execute races pretty well,  I don't have too many bad issues arise, and I achieve my goals.  It is good for me to fail every once in a while.  I'm hungrier and fired up because of it - I try and maintain a habit of saying that I am going to do things, then doing them.  I don't like coming up short like this.

I should have logged more miles while training for this race.  I peaked at 90 miles one week, which felt good, but many other weeks were right around 60 miles.  I should have logged more long road runs instead of running long mountain runs, but the long mountain runs are too fun!  I should have worn calf sleeves.  I  should have slowed down at an aid station or two to drink more than a little swig out of the cup, and not spill most of it during handoff.

I have some unfinished business with road marathons, but I'm going to put that on the back burner for now.  2:29 will have to wait.


Next up, SEAN O'BRIEN 50M!  Can't wait to run with Dylan Bowman, Timothy Olson, Chris Vargo, Rod Bien, Jesse Haynes, Jason Wolfe, Jorge Pacheco, Erik Schulte, James Walsh, Dom Grossman, Ricardo Ramirez and others on February 1st.  The entrant list is growing every day, but I'll post some predictions before too long.